ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan accounts for approximately 48% of individuals living in extreme poverty across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region, based on the World Bank’s October 2026 economic update. The measure employs the international threshold of $3 a day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. Between 2018-19 and 2024-25, Pakistan’s poverty rate at this level increased by 6.4 percentage points, making the country the primary contributor to the region’s extreme poverty figures.
The World Bank indicated that Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen collectively account for another 47% of the population in MENAAP living below the $3 daily threshold. When combined with Pakistan, these four nations represent about 95% of the region’s extreme poor. MENAAP now constitutes roughly 14% of the global population living in extreme poverty, a share surpassed only by Sub-Saharan Africa. The region remains the sole World Bank region where poverty remains above pre-pandemic levels and continues to grow.
Pakistan also experienced a rise at the higher $4.20-a-day poverty line used for lower-middle-income economies. The proportion of individuals below this level increased by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25. According to World Bank data, the rate reached about 48% in 2024, up from 44.7% in 2018. The report attributes this deterioration to COVID-19, the 2022 floods, high inflation, currency depreciation, and extended economic adjustment periods.
Poverty pressures intensify following consecutive shocks
These latest findings follow a significant update to the World Bank’s global poverty database in March 2026. New household survey data from Pakistan increased the estimated MENAAP extreme poverty rate for 2024 from 11.8% to 14.4%. This revision added about 21 million people to the region’s total estimated in extreme poverty. In September 2026, the World Bank noted that MENAAP remains one of only two regions with extreme poverty rates exceeding 5%, alongside Sub-Saharan Africa.
Although Pakistan’s economic growth has shown signs of recovery from recent lows, poverty indicators remain high. The October regional update forecasted Pakistan’s GDP growth at 3.7% for fiscal 2025-26 and projected a slight increase to 3.8% in fiscal 2026-27. Real GDP per capita growth is estimated at 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation is expected to be 7.1% in 2026, with an increase to 8.2% in 2027, following a lower rate in 2025.
Regional classification influences the headline statistic
The 48% figure reflects the current World Bank classification of MENAAP, which has included Pakistan and Afghanistan since September 2025. Prior to this change, both countries were categorized within South Asia by the World Bank. Pakistan’s government stated that this adjustment was administrative and statistical, not altering the country’s geographic or income classification. Finance Minister adviser Khurram Schehzad explained that the revised grouping shifted regional poverty totals by incorporating Pakistan’s large population into the MENAAP calculations.
The World Bank’s October update also projected a weaker regional economy for 2026, with a contraction of 2.1% after a 3.3% growth in 2025, due to conflict and disruptions affecting energy, logistics, and trade. Despite these challenges, developing oil-importing nations including Pakistan are expected to remain comparatively resilient, with a forecasted growth of 4.3% in 2026. However, rising food and energy costs continue to exert pressure on household purchasing power across several economies.